Trading, Time Frames, And Trends

Technical analysis is used to forecast future price trends. Many technical tools focus on the task of defining a trend. Not addressed adequately, however, is the issue of what kind of trend is being defined. Is it long term, medium term, or short term? Time frames are important for traders. After you establish the trend of the time frame you trade in, the next step is to relate that to the trend of the next larger time frame. For example, if you established the direction of the trend on a daily chart, you would look at a weekly one to confirm the direction of the trend. Understanding time frames will make sense of trends between two time frames, especially when there are opposing trends. When that is achieved, you can improve your market forecasts.

Time frame approach defined
It is a common practice for traders to look at markets in a single time frame. Traders typically focus only on the time frame they trade in, be it the hourly or daily charts. With the benefit of modern technology, charts are now available on time frames ranging from tick charts to five-minute ones to hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and beyond.

The time frame approach is a technique where you analyze a market over two or more time frames. If you normally analyze a five-minute chart, you should analyze the hourly one as well. If you are a daily chart trader, you should analyze the weekly or even the monthly for comparison. This will help you better forecast the market and trade more effectively.

FIGURE 1: WEEKLY CHART OF STRAITS TIMES INDEX (STI) FROM MARCH 2006 TO MARCH 2009. After a bullish rally in 2007, the weekly chart displayed a reversal in trend in 2009 when the 10-period EMA crossed below the 40-period EMA.

Cloudbanks by Thomas N. Bulkowski

During the 30 years I have spent investing in or trading the markets, I have discovered many chart patterns, including pipes, horns, and barrs. Here’s another, which I call the cloudbank pattern. Investing in cloudbanks gives you the opportunity to make a lot of money if you are patient and price rises back into the clouds.

Identification guidelines

Figure 1 shows an idealized example of a cloudbank chart pattern. It begins with price moving horizontally for several years, but the duration can vary from pattern to pattern. The shortest length in my study was five months and the longest was almost 17 years, with the average duration being 2.75 years. The cloudbank is nothing more than a ceiling of overhead resistance

The bottom of the cloudbank should have a horizontal base, but often it’s irregularly shaped. By “irregularly,” I mean it is uneven with several valleys approaching the same price separated by large distances. Sometimes, price pokes through the base, but that’s fine. Ignore cloud tops because they aren’t important.

After the cloudbank comes a swift decline to the lowest low that averages 56% for those patterns in which price returned to the cloudbank. Following a V-shaped bottom, price rises, and it takes about a year to return to the cloudbank.
Examples
Often, a bear market causes the drop out of the clouds, but not always. Let’s look at some examples to watch the pattern take shape